One of the debates brought forward in the Book, ‘The Art of War’, concerns whether a king should sustain the army during times of peace, as of war. The matter is addressed in among others, an economic sense. Fabricio, one of the characters, argues that an army would attract wages in either case, and it would make sense to the Treasury if a majority of them was allowed to return to their occupations during calm times to reduce the financial burden.
Today, just as in ancient time, going to war has a financial tag to it. That is why countries which are able to sustain a war for a long time are more often wealthy ones. Less endowed countries that have lengthened periods of turmoil would most probably end up on their knees economically. Question is, what exactly is the cost of war?
Price tag in other states
One key pillar in President Obama’s 2008 campaign manifesto was the return of troops back home. As at that time, he claimed the war that started in September 11, 2001 had cost his country some 1 trillion US dollars. In 2011, the White House reported that this figure had accumulated to $ 1.3 Trillion, and would increase to $1.4 Trillion in 2012.
A research titled, ‘Cost of War’ sponsored by Brown University, claims that this figure is grossly underestimated. It puts a current price tag at $ 3.7 Trillion, and projects it to hit the $ 4.4 Trillion mark.
According to official budget figures, the People’s Republic of China plans to spend $ 91.5 billion of her military this year. Various international agencies also claim that this figure is grossly underestimated; with the RAND Corporation saying the actual figure could be 40 – 70 % higher. According to the Xinhua News Agency and the RIA Novosti, Russia plans to increase its military budget from $ 42 billion in 2010 to $ 66.3 billion in 2013.
Some countries have opted for the cheaper end of the stick. Wikipedia lists 12 countries with absolutely no military force, with a further 5 having no standing army but an internal force with paramilitary skills.
Cost of war in Kenya
During President Kenyatta’s era, it was for a moment illegal to know how much was spent on the Kenyan military, so the figures were never declared in the country’s budget. Military spending in Kenya have in the recent past been in the Kshs 40 billion mark despite the country being at peace. Military spending is so highly prioritized that early this year, the government diverted teacher recruitment funds to the military to cover unforeseen immediate jump in costs.
Kenya is currently on the offensive, dubbed operation Linda Nchi, against the Al Shabaab in Somalia. This should automatically translate to increased costs on the military. There are no figures to attach to this offensive, and maybe the figures won’t be available in the foreseeable future. How much then does this current war cost?
The cost of not going to war
To answer this question, a different approach should be taken. Question should be, ‘how much would it cost the country not to go to war?’ A starting point would be to look at the Tourism sector, which is greatest hit by the terrorism menace. The sector projected that revenue figures would jump from kshs 75 billion in 2010 to kshs 100 billion in 2011, this not even counting the increase that would result from the weakening shilling against the dollar. Any shortfall from this figure would be the cost of not going to war.
Factor in the loss in investment in other sectors due to the reduced security rating that the country would attract by ignoring the Al Shabaab. Above all, Wanjiku entrusts on the state the duty to make her feel secure, including from external aggression. The peace of mind of a nation’s people is priceless, and the state should not spare cost to ensure that her people enjoy this right.
The math on the cost of war in the Kenyan case is simple. Summing up these and other factors not mentioned, the product is that WE GO TO WAR, as the benefits far outweigh the costs. In the words of Moses Wetangula, the minister of foreign affairs, ‘The duty to defend oneself is not limited to the rich, even the poor must defend themselves.
by Denis Nyanja
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